ITS SIMPLE.

Sorry for the less updated blog. I dont feel that I have anything else to put in. The answer is all in here. This was more like a log to me. I put in everything that I learned in forex.

To make things easier, I will summarize it.

What is Forex?
Forex stands for Foreign Exchange Market. Where you buy 1 currency over the other (exchange). Its a business, no matter what people say. It involve buying and selling like any other business only difference is the medium is currency.

How to trade Forex?
The idea behind forex trading is to make profit from the difference in prices. Simply put, buy when the price is low and sell it when the price is high. Its just like the item you buy in stores, the store keeper is selling it at a higher price to make profit except in Forex you can sell first at high price and buy back later when the price is low.

When to buy and when to sell?
Logically you will sell when the price is going down and you will buy when the price is going up. It is simple but in practice this is what killing most traders. Something so simple can be so complicated.

How to know when the price is going down/up?
The price is going down when it no longer making new high. The price is going up when it no longer making new low.

Final advice
Forex is a human activity. It involve buying and selling. Because it is a human activity, it is not predictable. You cannot predict when is the time you need to go to toilet or when you are going to cut your hair. It is all based on situation. Prediction is an over statement of intelligence in Forex. You dont need it.

Fortunately not everything is unpredictable. By nature human tends to follow what other people are doing. In Forex there is something called the Trend. It happen when lots of people are doing the same thing at the same time (follow??). when more and more people are buying, you buy. When more and more people are selling you sell.

Dont get greedy. Put a reasonable target for each trade and get out once you get your target. There will always be another trade tomorrow and you dont have to trade everyday to make profit. Btw, last week I only trade once.

Good luck to all you traders. For the new blood, take your time. Give it 2 years before you can understand it and go for the kill.

FOREX IS AN ART

When you say trading, people will say trading is an art. Look at all the books that has been published on the subject. They will say the art of trading forex.

In that sense, we must take forex as an art and not a science. I know, some people may not agree with me and all the post that is in this blog. I don't blame them coz I was actually in the same place as they were when I started trading. Trying to find the answer to forex using every logical explanation.

This is the answer that you have been looking for. I am going to give it to you straight away. Let see if your mind can accept it.

Forex is not a science. There is not a single mathematical equation that can explain it. Do not forecast, do not predict, do not anticipate. All you need to do to make profit is to follow the market. If the price is going up, you buy. If the price is going down, u sell. You may not win all the time but if you follow the market, in the end you will be in profit. Make profit and build up your capital up to a point where a few winning trades per month will bring huge profit.

Can you accept it? Can you mind admit it? Is your logical mind challenged? Do you feel helpless? Welcome to the real world :)

OVERCOMPLICATED TRADING

Human tends to over-complicate things. It is in our nature to try and improve what we have but most of the time we overcomplicated things and forget about the simple solution.

In my previous post, I posted a chart of a basic system. It consist of candle stick chart, moving average and macd. Only 3 indicators and it is a very simple system rite?

The answer is, it is not so simple actually. Candle stick alone tell you 4 things that is, open, close, high and low price. MA tells you direction of trend, entry point, start and end of trend. Macd tell you trend, entry point, reversal point.

From only 3 indicators there are actually 11 information cramp into that small chart. Too much info and decision making is a hard job. Though i filter comments, no one has actually ask about the amount of information on chart. It seems people can accept 11 information at once. Can you manage 11 input at once and make a decision out of it??

Trading is actually much simpler. It is actually possible to make profit with only 1 information. Believe it or not??

A BASIC SYSTEM - 10/05/10

I posted a basic system before with a chart of GbpUsd. Now I am going to use the same system and post the same pairs again.

Now GbpUsd has cross above LWMA55 and Macd has cross also. This is a new signal. So from now on only consider long position on GbpUsd. Btw anyone notice the price on this chart with the one i posted earlier?

Someone posted trade details. It seems the way I am trading will make me go bankrupt. All I can say is you dont have the idea what Forex is. Maybe I may not know how to handle the current market but my demo account has no drawdown. Maybe its coz im lucky. I just dont know.

I have stop trading the demo on marketiva. For $30 for the monthly winner. It is just a waste of time (Now I am going to reverse trade it). Instead I go for Instaforex forex sniper. Prize money is $1500 for weekly winner. Check out the banner on top.

FOREX 4TH ANNIVERSARY

Today marks the end of 4th year I am in Forex and I am still here. Most of the friends that I know trade has already stop. It must mean something to stay here for so long when most people quit. Its either I am really stubborn or I am not losing money. Which one you think?

After 3 days of demo trading I got over 25k of profit from 10k max lot trading. Its over 250pip net profit. Not bad for a part time trader and a 7th place so far. I dont think I can be number 1 coz of limited time I trade. Its a good progress, it shows where I am after 4 years. How about you?

A BASIC SYSTEM

Any system need to have a very good basic to stand on. Once the basic is sort out, then all the accessories can be add on. Just remember not to add too much to it. Today I am going to give a basic system. It consist of only 2 indicators. Being simple, it is able to generate good signal. Just remember to put SL properly.


Indicators:
1. LWMA 55
2. MACD standard setting

Time frame: 30m

Stop Loss : 35 pips

Take Profit : 35 pips or more.

Currencies : EurUsd, GbpUsd, EurJpy, GbpJpy

Trading System:
LWMA act as a thin trend line. If the price is above it, its uptrend. If the price is below it, its downtrend. So you buy or sell according to trend. Never reverse trade. MACD also shows the trend. If MACD is above 0, its uptrend and the other way around.

I have put 3 vertical lines in the chart where MACD cross 0. Once MACD cross 0, you should only trade according to trend. You entry should be on the LWMA 55 or close. At the moment MACD has cross 0 and is heading down. From now on only consider short position. Try to enter as close as possible to LWMA 55.

Caution has to be taken, even though MACD has cross the trend is not yet full down actually. There is another indicator that I use to show trend and its not full down yet. Unfortunately that indicator is no where in the chart because it is not on GbpUsd chart. It is somewhere else.

Now you wonder why its not there. The truth is most people fail because what they are looking for is not there. That is what I meant with looking at the wrong direction. The trend indicator for GbpUsd is not on GbpUsd chart. Weird isnt it?

You can take this basic system and try to add on what ever system you have. Hopefully it is useful. Good Luck

THE ENDING IS NEAR

1,447 days ago I started to step in the world of Forex. 6th May 2006 is the day I registered my 1st demo account and its a Saturday. Through out my journey in Forex, there are no actual manual, text or books that I can really refer to. Its like an unexplored land with no maps what so ever. There are only guides available online with no one giving specific answer.

Though hard it may be I started to develop my own system and continue to improve on that system. No matter how I try to improve it, there is still something missing. After a long and hard work I finally got the answer. It is an answer that I wasn't willing to accept. So I disappeared for almost 1 year though my part of moving places only took 1 month to settle.

Now I am back trading with the answer in my head thus a new direction in my sight. Turns out it is really easy once you have the right answer. You know the question as well as I do. "WHAT IS FOREX".

I believe my learning period in Forex is almost over. I can now see direction clearly. I know which pair to trade with the highest probability of profit. I know when to exit and I know when to turn off the computer while still holding positions. I have mastered the basic of Forex. The only thing now is discipline and Money Management.

What I am not willing to do is to write in this blog about trading ideas. I may blow out the answer. After almost 4 years, its not something I am willing to give easily. There are no notes, no records, nothing written anywhere on my trading ideas. Its all in my head. My system now is so simple, it consist of only 2 main indicators which I can trade without. Find the answer and its all smooth sailing from there. I just wish I have found it earlier.

For those of you who show interest in my new trading system, thank you for the attention. I have stopped giving out my system due to limited time I have to teach. I dont teach, I dont sell my system, I dont ask for your money and I dont give signals.

You can come and visit this blog. I will give chart analysis from time to time. Dont expect too much coz there is not much in Forex anyway.

Good luck to all of you. Thank you for visiting my blog. For today, do sell GJ coz its going down. You just need to figure out where to enter. Its not an easy task, I know coz Ive been there.

A TRADER'S TOOLS

A mechanic has many tools. Each tools with its own usage and purpose. It is only down to intelligence and creativity that separates a good mechanic and a bad one.

Like a mechanic, a trader has many tools as well. Each indicator is a tool for the trader and a combination set of tools with rules is a trading system. A good trader has not 1 but many system. Each system has different purpose. It is down to knowledge and creativity that separates a good trader and a bad one apart from portfolio.

The best time frame to trade is the lower time frame but due to noise and spikes it is difficult to trade using lower timeframe. It is the reason why most trades fail in short time frame.

EurUsd has been ranging for the past few days and due to it, has hit my stop loss twice. Being a trend trader myself, I just cannot trade during these ranging period. So I stopped trading and try to make a new trading system using lower time frame to catch these ranging market.

It seems with a new set of tools (not new actually, had not used them for a while), I have manage to create an almost perfect trading system for all time frame but with the target of 15m chart. The only thing that this new system doesnt show is when not to trade which i made up with a new set of rules.

If any of you would like to try the new trading system please leave your email. I will try to get back to you ASAP.

EURGBP DROP

Yesterday I wrote about EG connection. Guess what, I took the whole EG drop and run away with it. Right now all live post on EG is closed, profit in the bag :).

I was so confident on EG drop I was betting 50% of my capital on it on 1 post only. Quiet a risk and really worth it. I feel like I just won a horse race :))

EU still up there and there is a killer spike up to 1.3537. Atm I on sideline watching for opportunity.

Fing lol email me on your progress. Really like to hear how you are doing.

EURGBP CONNECTION

Here is a homework for some of you. Your task is to find the connection between EurGbp with Eur pairs (EurUsd, EurJpy) and Gbp (GbpUsd, GbpJpy) pairs. You can post in comments about your findings so that we can discuss. Discussion is always a good learning method since you are required to think and not spoon fed.

EURUSD has finally reached its top. Entry point for me is between 1.3450 - 1.3500. You can find a suitable entry point or wait for the pair to really go down and take your entry. At the moment that entry is still a high risk entry. I am giving an early heads up so you guys can prepare.

Btw dont post link or whatever you want to promote in comments. I will not allow it and there is no such thing as 100% accurate forex signal. When are you guys gonna get it. There is no such thing as 100% in life.

CHART ANALYSIS - EURUSD

I think I will give chart analysis from now on. Its easier to do and easier for you guys to get confused :). First up is EurUsd. Not very hard to trade actually once you know the direction.

Ok lets go to the confusing part. That is the charts.

There you go. Weekly chart for starters. Can any of you guess which way is EU going? From the looks of it, EU is really going down and its a fast one. Easy isn't it?

Next chart please. 1 chart isn't going to get anyone confused.

Next is the Daily chart. Guess what, daily is also pointing down but at the moment it is in oversold position. CCI is way down there and making a U turn. Expect correction at daily level. So far 2 charts says EU down with a correction coming.

Another chart. Anyone confused yet???

This is the hourly chart. We can see where the correction is. Its really climbing now. So before anyone get anymore confuse I would say wait for the hourly chart to point down then you sell. Plan for the worse hope for the best. Keep your money management tight and you may survive the storm.

Btw dont sell EU yet. That sell line is for me to mark S&R. If EU do go down next target is 1.30 and 1.25 based on S&R on weekly chart.

Now the question is, how long do we have to wait before selling EU. The answer is I dont know. Just wait and see. It is what Forex is. Anyone here still confused?? I do :)

ITS NOT PIPS BUT PROFIT IN FOREX

You can actually tell if someone is new in Forex by the way they count their pips or profit. When people starts forex they count pips. They can have hundreds of pips a day and yet their profit is low. This is due to the low risk reward ratio they have taken.

Once you are older in Forex, you will see the ratio. No point of taking hundreds of pips when the profit is low. So you start to take high risk high return trade. These trades do not give you high pips but the profit margin is high.

That is how money is to be made in Forex. You actually manage your risk and take profit from it. For today as of now, I already taken 3 trades. 2 profit trades and 1 lost trade. My account grows 37%. Not bad for a slow Monday.

For the answer to Forex, once you know it you will feel helpless. No matter how smart or brilliant you are it counts for absolutely nothing here. I have Banking and IT qualification. Did that help me? 2 different qualification did not help me one bit here. Made me want to cry when I found it out.

Hunt pips but count profit. Good Luck

NEXT UP EURGBP

EurGbp is going up so those of you who have the guts do buy EG at every dip refer to chart 1H or lower to view.

I got lots of email and calls asking me about the secret of forex and how to trade. What if I tell you the answer is not as u expected it to be. Some people even rejected the answer when I told them.

I dont blame them. When I found the answer I feel like Im going to cry. Its hard to accept something the logical mind cannot understand. In the mean time, take it slow and enjoy the ride.



People say seeing is believing. 2 post already TP. Another 1 more for weeks to come. Forgot to mention. Possible retrace at the price in the picture. So TP at will reentry on next low.

AN EYE ON AUDUSD

AU manage to hold its level when both EU and GU fall down dramatically. Do look at the daily chart to see what I mean.

Some of your might not understand what it means and so do I :) Dont worry, the longer you are in Forex the more info you will filter out. This is coz some things are not worth understanding.

The reason I am pointing this out is when a pair is making a stand like AU, you can actually use it to your advantage. Advantages such as:

1. The next time AU decide to fall down there is a high probability the EU and GU will crash but there is a limit to everything.

2. The next time EU and GU start to climb, AU will fly.

Keep that in mind coz I do. I am waiting for the AU to fall or fly.

LOST IN FOREX

Have you ever been lost in Forex? Some of you might be thinking, how do i get lost in forex?? Let me ask another question. Have you ever open a trade in one direction, after some time open a trade in the opposite direction?

Im sure that happens to all of us, myself included :). That is lost in Forex, where we are unsure of direction of trade. Some people even hedge in the situation.

I have a few tips when you are lost in Forex.

1. If you are lost and dont know which direction to trade, the most important thing is to stop trading and do something else. Go plant a tree or play games. Dont even look at the charts anymore to avoid confusion.

2. Is to take a trading system and put it on multiple time frame. I trade using the same system on 3 timeframe. 15m, 1h, daily. When all three is pointing at the same direction then I trade. If 2 timeframe is pointing at the same direction then i scalp.

3. After sometime, your brain will start to imprint patterns of Forex. Forex has the same pattern over and over again. In our mind, that pattern has been imprinted and it influence our decision making subconsciously. Once you reach that state you will rarely get lost in Forex. You will know the exact time to trade or to get lost (do something else).

I will try to update this blog. Been so long and so busy with new place. As for Forex, USD pairs are going nowhere at the moment with a high probability to go down further. Good luck on your hunt for pips